All the excitement of the Grand National may have died down for another year but our congratulations go to One for Arthur who won at odds of 14-1.
Being based in Chester, the start of the race season here at the Roodee is always a highlight of the calendar for us. Take a look at the meetings coming up in May – a great atmosphere and a good excuse for any ladies to get a new outfit!
As you know, at Clever we’re fascinated with data and how it helps us make predictions. Well, nowhere are predictions more keenly sought than on race day so we thought we’d take a brief look behind the scenes of betting to help you pick a winner.
Whether you like a flutter on the horses or not, the science behind the way odds are calculated is fascinating.
Odds can be displayed as either fractions or decimals but you’ll probably be most used to seeing them as fractions (e.g. 3/1).
These allow you to calculate how much money you will win on your bet in comparison to your stake. The number on the left is how much you will win, plus the return of your stake, while the number on the right is how much you need to bet.
So if the odds are:
9/1 – for every £1 you bet, you will win £9. This can also be calculated as 1 / (9 + 1) = 0.10, meaning there is a 10% chance that the event will happen.
and if they are:
1/4 – for every £4 you bet, you will win £1. This can also be calculated as 4 / (4 + 1) = 0.80, meaning there is an 80% chance of it happening.
Of course, we wouldn’t be financial advisers if we didn’t give a few risk warnings!
- gambling is a risk not an investment!
- One for Arthur’s past performance will be no guarantee of his future performance!
- only bet an amount you’d be happy to lose.
- never, ever forget to place your partner’s winning bet!
Betting each way can be a good means of increasing your chances of success, especially if the odds are higher. An ‘each way’ bet is essentially two bets, one to win and one to place, usually in the top three. So if your horse wins, you get to collect on both bets.
People often pick a horse based on its name, its colours or the jockey – not particularly scientific methods. And, unsurprisingly the bookies usually have a field day! Contrary to this (you’ll be pleased to know), the investment philosophy at CleverAdviser is based on cool, rational logic rather than lucky ‘hunches’ or superstition.
That’s why, if we were giving you tips on a winning horse, we would ensure you had a robust process in place, based on strict criteria that used computer algorithms to make sensible forecasts. It would be based on objective facts, not swayed by human emotion so you might take into account:
- whether the ground is hard or soft
- what the horse’s form that season has been so far
- who the trainer is
- which position the horse will be in the starting stalls
- the official handicap rating
We certainly wouldn’t encourage you to be influenced by how everyone else was betting or be swayed by one too many glasses of champagne!
While we may not know much about horses, we do know our sums and we use proven methods to improve the chances of good returns through in depth fund analysis and sound investment practice.
So, not to be seen to be encouraging gambling, we do wish you good luck with any bets you may place and a Happy Race Season! And if you’d like to know more about how we pick winners in an investment sense, why not book a demo?
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